Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.292350 16.312798 18.478442 20.967870 23.745779 26.745496 30.225018
2025-09-14 11.527240 14.332231 17.561969 21.537036 26.277658 31.729100 38.450012
2025-09-21 9.773694 12.852726 16.566609 21.341375 27.278691 34.377314 43.460880
2025-09-28 8.086488 11.209724 15.143905 20.409573 27.211494 35.634268 46.776267
2025-10-05 7.395008 10.706570 15.028782 21.005550 28.965511 39.100932 52.863972
2025-10-12 6.762975 10.195338 14.824721 21.420353 30.451604 42.243545 58.635212
2025-10-19 6.049581 9.484124 14.265309 21.274433 31.127520 44.300048 63.015814
2025-10-26 5.422331 8.825484 13.707796 21.060702 31.654865 46.132953 67.124184
2025-11-02 4.949950 8.344533 13.353114 21.086552 32.483887 48.375119 71.842083
2025-11-09 4.576583 7.975468 13.124493 21.262021 33.509230 50.904239 77.028275
2025-11-16 4.186280 7.540100 12.755286 21.188157 34.142719 52.875985 81.471767
2025-11-23 3.816181 7.100980 12.341484 21.006534 34.584901 54.563301 85.540078
2025-11-30 3.537226 6.795207 12.124468 21.128828 35.511430 57.027130 90.888373
2025-12-07 3.378568 6.682121 12.210036 21.734170 37.210630 60.708522 98.183117
2025-12-14 3.084914 6.300390 11.816742 21.525603 37.599172 62.397634 102.514791
2025-12-21 2.697671 5.709575 11.021052 20.590600 36.759276 62.142066 103.842959
2025-12-28 2.596463 5.644420 11.131219 21.189795 38.442000 65.874084 111.453534
2026-01-04 2.474871 5.528085 11.139749 21.608274 39.835419 69.188937 118.510783
2026-01-11 2.282326 5.253060 10.839291 21.461060 40.259860 70.954408 123.157789
2026-01-18 2.098083 4.976568 10.514393 21.245750 40.548197 72.496226 127.481120
2026-01-25 1.960266 4.782906 10.330439 21.271777 41.248510 74.728931 132.983351
2026-02-01 1.851284 4.640057 10.232971 21.448600 42.215564 77.429900 139.327412
2026-02-08 1.722477 4.441209 10.010524 21.374167 42.724280 79.368491 144.458795